20231221 update: tweet link removed, account locked. snippet below. I wrote about some key takeaways from @nntaleb’s new technical book, Statistical Consequences of Thick Tails (https://t.co/Qj5ab0WtpJ) It’s a short review on fat tails in plain english, including the relationship between moments, tail indices, and pseudo-convergence (https://pic.twitter.com/X5Zbmc088J) — F Y Isaac (@gelmanisaac) December 23, 2020 source link a surprisingly readable rundown on fat tails that will force you to brush up on some old stats stuff....

a coworker described liu’s work as having a very small view of humans. my initial interpretation of his remarks were that liu held a dim/negative view of humans and humanity. this was largely informed based on my (incomplete) reading of the dark forest trilogy. human’s don’t behave well and are driven by base desires. i was wrong.b this collection of shorts corrects my understanding of things. liu really gets the smallness of humanity in the universe overall....

a useful reminder as to how young and anomalous democracy actually is and that the tendency is towards authoritarian rule. The way to shore up American democracy is to shore up American democracy—that is, to strengthen liberal institutions, in ways that are unglamorously specific and discouragingly minute. The task here is not so much to peer into our souls as to reduce the enormous democratic deficits under which the country labors, most notably an electoral landscape in which farmland tilts to power while city blocks are flattened....

2020 media diet what a shitty year. i/we wasted time with the following. movies Borat Subsequent Movie Film… Da 5 Bloods MidSommar Emma The Invisible Man Downhill The Last Black Man in San Francisco First Reformed tenet the midnight sky uncut gems eurovision miss americana the lovebirds enola holmes plenty more, few memorable. this may just be a function of 2020. tv so much tv. i am not proud of this....